The Art of Online Game Selection

Game selection—it’s a favorite subject of poker theorists, and a critical skill for anyone looking to improve their win rate at the poker table. What, exactly, is game selection? Simply put, it’s the ability to discern which games are the most profitable. In this essay we’ll explore this topic, and explain which games you should be jockeying for a seat in, and which games you should be happy to avoid.

In order to fully grasp the concept of game selection, you first need to understand one thing; the more money that goes in on the opening round, the larger the role that luck plays in a player’s results. Conversely, the less money that goes in on the opening round, the greater the role that skill plays in a player’s results. Although this concept is often misunderstood (or not understood at all) by experienced players, it is critical that you understand the implications of this statement, since it’s the dynamic that is often most responsible for a player’s results. To better understand this concept, let’s illustrate through an example.

Let’s say we’re playing 3-6 hold em. It’s a typical 3-6 game in every respect, except that everyone is forced to ante $20 dollars before the hands are dealt. Thus, the pot contains one, one dollar blind, one three dollar blind, and $200 in antes before the deal. How would a game like this play out? As it turns out, poker skill would have almost no bearing at all on the players' results. Since the pot is already so big, it would be correct to play every hand before the flop. As we all know, ‘any two cards can win’ in hold em, and even a hand like 8 2 offsuit can occasionally drag a monster pot. Since the pot is guaranteed to be at least $204, paying a measly three bucks to take a look at the flop with 8 2 offsuit would be no-brainer.

This means, of course, that hand selection skills—which is one of the skills that really separates the wheat from the chaff at the poker table—go completely out the window. And how about post-flop play? Again, it would become correct to chase just about any goofy draw to the river, since the pay off for hitting it would be so enormous. Thus, superior post-flop skills are also consigned to the garbage heap. In short, poker skill wouldn’t be at all important in a game like this. You would simply be dealt you hand, and dutifully go to the river on almost every deal. In the long run you’d win about 10% of the hands dealt (again, assuming a 10 player game) just like everyone else.

Now obviously you’re never going to play in a game like this. But games where there is a lot of pre-flop raising are governed by a similar dynamic. If it’s going to cost you—and, by extension, your opponents—a bundle to see every flop, everyone is going to be getting the proper odds to continue on with just about every ridiculous draw imaginable. In a game like this, your superior post flop play doesn’t do much to inform your results, since nobody is making a mistake by chasing with inferior hands. You have A K, and the flop comes A 9 4. You’re correct to keep betting, but the guy with 4 2 offsuit is also correct to be chasing, since all the pre-flop raising has built such a massive pot. Now you’ll eventually get the money in a game with tons of pre-flop raising, since A K will beat 4 2 a fair percentage of the time. But it’s going to take a long time for your superior playing skills to reflect in your results, since your opponents are only making a mistake on one betting round (that being the first round) and not on subsequent rounds.

Let’s look now at another type of game, one where the money invested on the opening round is small compared to the money wagered on subsequent rounds. Examples of games like this include spread limit games (for example, 1-4-8-8, or 2-5, or 2-10), no-limit games, and games with a ‘kill’ button. In these types of games, very little of the total money wagered goes in on the first round. This means you can really punish people for chasing with the second best hand after the flop, since the size of their reward when they hit pales in comparison to the money they have to invest to keep chasing. For this reason an excellent player enjoys a huge edge over bad players in these types of games. In a game like no-limit, for example, many bad players will almost never enjoy a winning session. In a game like 2-5, where it costs two bucks to limp in, and the bets come in increments of five dollars on the flop, turn and river, the bad players will score an occasional win, but not nearly as often as they will in a structured limit game like 2-4, or 3-6. This explains why up until a couple years ago, when the new ‘hold ‘em explosion’ took place, the number of limit games spread in card rooms probably outnumbered the no-limit games by a margin of 50-1, and spread limit games could only be found at the very lowest limits.

What does all this mean to you? In a nutshell, it means you should be looking for games that have less pre-flop raising. This usually leads you to games that have an average pot size somewhere around 6 to 7 big bets. Obviously you can usually find a game where the average pot size is bigger than this. And, usually you’ll see a long wait list for these games. But the fact that the games have bigger pots doesn’t mean they are the most profitable. In fact, what it likely means is that ‘luck’ is going to play a greater role in the results than the winning player would like to see.

Sound like a drag, doesn’t it? After all, the games with the huge pots are more fun to play in, and no amount of theoretical gobbledy-gook is going to change that. But if you’re in it for the money, stick with the games that play smaller. Besides, whatever enjoyment you lose from not playing in monster pots is more than made up for in your ability to really punish that obnoxious guy who keeps limping in with 7 4 offsuit.

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