Exclusive Netbettor Texas Hold'em Article:

Crushing the Microlimits
The Dark Art of the Suckout Part I

Quick! What’s that slurping sound? Why, it’s you, the microlimit player, sucking out on the river in a huge pot to snap some guy’s aces! ‘Ha ha ha ha’, you think, as your 7 9 comes in on the river for a running flush in a 20 big bet pot. As the chips are added to your stack, it’s all you can do to keep your fingers from hitting the keyboard and entering something snide in the chatbox. ‘How does that taste, pal’? Or perhaps: ‘Man, you’ve got to get those aces fixed!’

Indeed, there are few things in poker more gratifying than making a goofy hand on the river to snap off a premium pair. The reason for this is twofold. First, it’s always nicer to be stacking the chips than watching someone else do the same, and second, if you’ve been playing advantage poker for a while you know that you’re the recipient of bad beats a hell of a lot more often than you’re the distributor of same. Since it’s usually you who’s in there with a premium pair, and some calling station who’s trying to dig out a stupid two-pair on the river with an 8 3 suited, it stands to reason that you’re going to be the cow, as opposed to the bull, more often on the river than you’d like. Naturally, then, it feels pretty damn good when you get to turn the tables.

But, alas, as a winning player you have to show some discretion when it comes to chasing with what are obviously second best hands. As with everything there’s a time and a place for this, but indiscriminately going to the river everytime you flop 3rd pair will inevitably punch your ticket to the poorhouse. In this week’s article we’ll look at a couple of the things you ought to consider when deciding whether or not to sally forth with a marginal hand.

1) Always take both the current size of the pot, and your implied odds, into consideration.
I bring this up because this one factor should inform virtually every decision you make at the poker table. In fact, it’s so important that you will occasionally find yourself making radically different decisions on the flop from one hand to another, even if all other factors are essentially the same, simply because the size of the pot is different. For example, if you have A A, and the flop comes 4 4 8 rainbow (all different suits), you might sometimes just check and call the flop if the pot’s being contested by three or fewer players who each paid two bets to see the flop. However, if the pot was capped pre-flop you might actually three-bet this flop, or perhaps even cap it, if you can persuade a hand to fold that has a legitimate chance to beat you. Of course, this essay isn’t concerned with the play of pocket aces, but I use this example to demonstrate just how the size of the pot can alter your playing decisions.

When it comes to the art of sucking out, you want to make sure there’s enough money in the pot—or will at least be enough money in the pot at the end of the hand—to justify venturing forward with a marginal hand. Example: you have 6 6, and limp in early position after one limper. The player behind you raises and three people call the raise. The small blind folds, the big blind three bets, the player in front of you calls, you call, and the original raiser and all others call. Seven to the flop for three small bets each.

Now the flop comes 9 5 3. The raiser from the blind checks, and all check to the pre-flop raiser to your left who bets. There are three callers when it gets back to you. What’s your play?

You call, of course. You’re getting 25:1 on a call, and you’re only 22:1 against hitting a six on the turn. Also, you could pick up a four or a seven on the turn to give you a gutshot draw. Notice also that you have the 6s, which means you won’t hit your set while someone else hits their flush.

But now let’s change it up. Say you’re in the big blind with those same sixes, and an early position player raises. Two callers and the small blind folds. You call. The flop comes 9 5 3. You check, the pre-flop raiser bets, and one player calls. What’s your move now?

You fold. You’re only getting 11:1 on a call here, and even with your implied odds you aren’t getting near enough of an overlay. Notice that the only thing that’s really changed between these two hands is the size of the pot. Yet that one factor sways a hand from an easy call to a similarly easy fold.

The general message here is to never neglect to take the size of the pot into account. It’s the first thing you have to look at, an in many cases it’s also the last thing. If you don’t properly weight the risk vs. the reward in situations like this you’re destined to lose. It’s just that simple.

2) Consider what the chances are that you’ll improve your hand and still lose.
To help illustrate this concept, let’s take a hand—we’ll use T 9, although you could pick almost any hand you wanted—and look a few sample flops. Try and rank the following sample flops from 1 through 6, ‘1’ being the best flop for this hand, and ‘6’ being the worst. In all cases, we’ll assume you’re in the big blind, and have called one raise. Also, we’ll assume that five of you are seeing the flop.

a) A T 8

b) K J T

c) 8 6 3

d) Q J T

e) K Q 7

f) J 9 7

How would you rank these? Although this would be open to debate, I would rank them like this:

1) c

2) f

3) a

4) e

5) b

6) d

As you look at my ranking, you’ll notice a couple things. First, those hands I ranked closest to the top are those which have a chance a making a hand that at least resembles the nuts. Second, those hands I ranked near the bottom are those which could very easily catch a miracle card and still end up with a hand which simply couldn’t be bet with confidence. Also, I tended to rank those hands which have a back door flush draw a little higher, since catching a heart on the turn will allow you to profitably continue with the hand where otherwise you might not (if you catch a heart on the turn, for example, and end up making trips, two pair or a straight on the river, that heart on the turn was an exceptionally valuable card for you. True, it didn’t help you make a flush, but it did allow you to go on and catch a winning card which you otherwise wouldn’t have had the opportunity to catch). Fourth, those hand which I ranked at the bottom are hands where a number of cards could come off on the river to either counterfeit or ruin your hand, even if you caught perfect on the turn. In cases like flop ‘b’ or ‘d’, for instance, you can catch a great card on the turn and either a) still be behind, or b) looking at a scenario where there may be as many as 15-20 cards that you don’t want to see on the river. This amounts to a situation where you essentially have to ‘catch twice’—a good card on the turn, in this case, and a card that doesn’t completely destroy your hand on the river.

When deciding to chase, you want to be fairly confident that if catch on the turn and your hand is good, it’s got a good chance of staying good on the river. By looking at these sample flops, and giving some thought to this idea the next time you find yourself in this situation, you should have little trouble getting to the point where you can discern the ‘chasing’ flops from the ‘folding’ flops.

Next week we’ll continue our discussion on the suckout, and look at the concepts of relative position and dissect the value of the back door draw. Until then, may all your sets be good!

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Other Poker Strategy Articles:
The Check-Raise Part II
The Value Bet
The Dark Art of the Suckout II