Exclusive Netbettor Texas Hold'em Article:

Crushing the Microlimits
The Value Bet

Top pair, no kicker
This is a hand that many players ‘forget’ to bet on the river. Once all five cards are out a top pair, a no kicker hand can start to look pretty marginal, and a lot of players are happy to simply check this one down and hope their hand is good. Unfortunately, this strategy usually leaves a lot of money on the table, since there is typically a huge range of hands that your opponent would pay off with if our hero would simply bet. Let’s look at a couple examples:

Example #1: You have K 5 on the button, and limp in after four limpers. Both blinds call. Now the flop comes K 7 6. All check to you, and you bet. Both blinds fold, and two of the limpers call. The turn is the 6. Again they check, and again you bet. Now only one of them calls. The river is the T. He checks. Should you bet?

Absolutely! If he had a king you would have expected him to bet on the flop. If he had a six you would have expected him to check raise you on the turn. The way the hand’s played out, it looks like he has something like pocket 9’s, or maybe a hand like 8 7. He can’t have a busted flush draw (there was no flush draw on the flop), and while it is possible he has a busted straight draw it’s much more likely that he’s going to pay you off with a weak seven or some kind of pocket pair smaller than kings. Bet your hand and expect to collect.

Example #2: You have A 6 in the big blind. All fold to a player in middle-late position who calls, the button calls, and the small blind calls. You check and the flop comes A T 7. The small blind checks, you bet, the original caller calls and the button and small blind fold. The turn is the 8. You bet and get called. The river is K.

Again, bet your hand. You would have expected the original caller to raise pre-flop with AJ, AQ or AK (especially since he was the first player to enter the pot), so the only ace that beats you would be A9. If he had AT, A8 or A7 you would have expected a raise on the turn. While it’s possible that he made a goofy two pair on either the turn or river, or happened to fill a gutshot straight draw on the river, it’s also very likely that he’s been calling along with a hand like T9, JT, 67, etc. etc., and now feels too ‘pot stuck’ to fold his hand. Bet away, and expect to get paid off by an inferior hand.

A made hand on the river
You’ll see this sometimes too; a guy will complete his hand on the river, only he’ll check when the action is on him, worried that the card that made him has also made someone else an even bigger hand. Does this happen? Well, yeah—of course it does. But it doesn’t happen very often, which means checking in these spots is just too costly. Here’s an example.

You have J 9 in middle position. Three limpers to you, you call, the button and both blinds call. Seven players to the flop, which comes T 8 5. The small blind bets, two players call, you call and the button calls. The turn is the 4. The small blind bets out again, only now one of the callers on the flop raises. You call, the button calls and the small blind calls. The river is the Q. All check to you. Should you bet?

But of course! Sure, the Q could have made someone a flush, but remember, this is a microlimit game, which means most players don't need all that much of a hand to justify calling two bets on the turn. Also, there’s a reasonable chance that the small blind would have bet out on the river if he’s made the flush (micro limit players as a rule do very, very little check raising, which is another reason to feel pretty good about your hand). While it’s true that the button could have been on a flush draw, it’s also possible that he has something like KT, A2, or 68. Further, if he has completed the flush it may be a ‘baby’, which means he may not even raise your bet, fearing that you have made a bigger flush. Sometimes you get raised here, but those are just the breaks. The pot has gotten pretty big, which means at least one of your opponents is going to feel compelled to call with a weak hand. Bet out and collect.

We’ll talk more about value bets as this series progresses, since understanding value bets is an essential component of winning microlimit play. For now, though, keep this thought in mind; unless you have a very good reason to think your hand isn’t good on the river, you’re probably better off betting. Do not be afraid of getting raised; this will happen, and you’ll just have to deal with it. The profits that these bets earn you, however, will more than compensate for those occasions when you end up betting with the second best hand.

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Other Poker Strategy Articles:
The Check-Raise Part I
The Check-Raise Part II
Playing a Draw