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Exclusive Netbettor Texas Hold'em Article: "the quality of play between the smaller games and the bigger games has shrunk considerably; and, in some cases, disappeared entirely"
Raising the Limits If you've been consistently beating the online games, odds are that you've more than once thought about moving up in limits. But when is the right time? This week we'll look at some of the factors you should consider when comtemplating a jump in limits, as well as some of the myths and misperceptions that have evolved over the years on this subject. First, let's all get one thing straight—higher limits do NOT necessarily mean tougher competition. Is the pool of players at the bigger limits better, on average, then the pool at the lower limits? Of course it is. But the difference is not nearly as dramatic as many small limit players assume it to be. And, in fact, there are some terrible players at the higher limits which make these games worth your while. For example, a couple of nights ago I was watching a 5 handed 300-600 game on Interpoker, and was shocked to see that one player saw SEVENTEEN consecutive flops, never raised pre-flop, took fourteen of these hands to the river and won only one of them. For the fifteen minutes I was watching he lost over 12 grand. Now obviously this guy was a fish of near Biblical proportions, but that kind of play is not unheard of at the bigger limits. In fact, there have been a number of occasions where I've seen terrible play at the big game at Interpoker. The point here is that you should not be intimidated by the players at higher limits. Very frequently they are the same bad players you've been beating up on in the 2-4 game, only they happen to be doctors instead of janitors. Back in the Stone Age, when all poker was played in brick and mortar card rooms, the idea that the bigger games were significantly tougher was not without merit. This was because there was virtually no money to be made at the 4-8 level or lower. If you figured your win rate was 1 BB/ hr, then a 3-6 player could stand to make, on average, about $6 an hour; not what we would consider a gaudy earn. With the advent of Internet poker, however, even low limit players discovered that by multi-tabling they could make upwards of $30-$40 an hour playing the same 3-6 games; and do so with only a fraction of the exposure of a 15-30 player. What resulted was the birth of the ‘low limit pro', a guy who could probably tear it up in the larger games, but because of risk aversion has decided to make a comfortable income beating up on the smaller games. The smaller games aren't exactly stuffed with these kinds of ‘pros', but there are enough of them such that the disparity in the quality of play between the smaller games and the bigger games has shrunk considerably; and, in some cases, disappeared entirely. For confirmation of this look at the pot size statistics next time you log into your favorite poker room. Most nights you'll see that the smaller games are featuring pots in the 6-7 BB range; same as the bigger games. And while pot size doesn't tell the whole story, it is nevertheless a relatively stable indicator of how many players are in the game who don't know what they're doing. But back to our original question: When should you move up in limits? Well, that's obviously a personal decision. But here are a few of the guidelines I have used in the past. 1. Are you ready to lose big sums of cash on the Internet? This may sound funny, but believe me when I say it's a question you need to answer honestly. I've had nights where I've lost literally thousands of dollars playing hold em online, and if you decided to move up in limits you will experience losses that will make your old downswings pale in comparison. There are some people out there who just cannot accept the idea of losing $500 gambling on the Internet. They're notion of common sense just rejects it. If this is you, then you should stay put. Conversely, you also need to be mentally prepared for winning big sums. Just as I've had some terrible losing sessions, I've also gone on some fantastic heaters. And I speak true when I say nothing will warp your sense reality like having your Neteller account stuffed with poker winnings. If you're a winning player, and you move up to, say, 10-20, at some point you're going to go on a 10,000 hand run where you win $8000 or so. When this happens you're likely to feel utterly invincible; thoughts of ‘quitting your day job' will come to mind, or outlandish ideas of setting up another computer and working in another four tables. Again, believe me when I say I have walked that road. And while this may actually be a good idea, one absolute golden rule I've adopted is this: Never make any gambling related decisions when you're running well. Which brings us to point two… "A bad run of cards should be humbling; it shouldn't be life altering. Make sure you're really as good as you think you are before committing yourself to larger limits."
2. Don't make the jump after running great. So you've been playing the 2-4 at Party, and your pokertracker stats show you're up $2700 over your last 15,000 hands. At this point you can probably be fairly sure that you are, in fact, a long term winner. That's the good news. Nevertheless, it's almost certain that you've also been running quite well. A solid player should probably expect to take somewhere between $1400-$2200 out of that game over the same number of hands. Assuming you're skill level is at the bottom of this range (we'll explain why in a minute) this indicates you've been catching more than your share of hands. As a result, you're estimation of your playing skills are probably overly generous. Further, while 15,000 hands is not statistically meaningless it isn't a lock that you're a winner. Put in another 15,000 hands in the same game and reevaluate. Most new players—and by new I mean players will less than 100,000 hands under their belt—don't appreciate just how long a bad run of cards can last; and, by extension, how long a good run can last. Example: When I played full time in Denver there was a player in the game named Carl. Now Carl was a decent player; not world-class, but a typical decent mid limit player. He could read hands well, make thin value bets, and wasn't afraid to push small edges. Now when Carl first started playing in the game he was a lock-down conservative player. No limping under the gun with 8 7 suited, no three betting from the small bind with 77—none of that. Just sit tight and hug the nuts. But then something happened—Carl went on an epic heater, the likes of which I have never seen again in the six years since. For about 30,000 hands he simply could not miss. He made all his draws. His A's and K's always held up. He could take pocket 9's into a seven man field and emerge a winner against four guys at the showdown on a AKT78 board. It was, to put it simply, the most astounding statistical anomaly I've ever personally witnessed; and I've witnessed a lot. Although nobody knows for sure, most of us estimated that Carl probably took somewhere around $140,000 out of the 20-40 over that six month period. As this heater progressed Carl's starting hand requirements began to loosen up. And why shouldn't they? It's hard not to limp in in early position with the 8s 5s when you know you're going to spike trip 5's on the flop and drag a $700 pot. The fact that he never missed a hand had warped his appreciation for prudent pre-flop play. But as the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end. Sure now that he was Stu Ungar incarnate, Carl quit his day job and moved to LA, where he planned on whacking the black chip game at the Commerce. Although I personally never heard from Carl again, I did hear through the grapevine that he arrived in Tap City about 5 months later, and was forced to move back to Calgary and live with his mom. In the process his wife divorced him. A bad run of cards should be humbling; it shouldn't be life altering. Make sure you're really as good as you think you are before committing yourself to larger limits. 3. You don't have to commit yourself to a bigger game. Check it out first. Take some shots, and get a feel for the caliber of play. No successful poker player that I know has ever woke up one morning and said ‘Well, I guess I'm a 20-40 player now'. Still play in the game you're comfortable with , but make the occasional foray into the bigger game. Eventually you'll find yourself playing in the bigger game more and more, and eventually you'll leave the smaller game behind forever. One of the big mistakes many poker players make is adopting the limit they play at as part of their identity .They don't want to move back down because ‘they're a 10-20 player now, not a 4-8 player'. Look- in the long run it should be all about the money. And that means you need to play in games that you can beat. If a larger limit game intimidates you, or your bankroll gets to a point where you can't afford larger play, then get out of the game. Moving up in limit is something all good players should eventually consider. The fact is that there is more money to be made in a 15-30 than in a 3-6, and if your skill level allows you to prosper at the bigger game there is zero reason not to reap the larger reward. But don't overestimate your skill level, and be sure you're properly bankrolled to weather the swings. If you do these things you'll be abusing the red chip games in no time.
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