Netbettor Pick: Eagles  +7. The line opened at 6.5, and almost immediately steamed to 7, where it will probably sit until kick off. This is eerily reminiscent of last year, where the Panthers opened as 6.5 point dogs, then closed as a solid 7 point underdog. Why are we on the Eagles? For the simple reason that every two-bit ploppy in the world is going to take the Pats. The squares are in love with the AFC this year, and after New England beat Indy and Pittsburgh you had to know that the line would be inflated towards the Patriots. All week long you're going to hear the same song and dance-'Tom Brady is 8-0 in the playoffs, Vinatieri is the best clutch kicker in the game, Belichick is a genius.'

Blah blah blah. Look- the fact is, the Eagles are a top-flight squad, backed by a rock solid defense and a man who may be the second best QB in the league (behind Manning). Furthermore, Andy Reid does not make a habit out of being out-coached. It would be nice if T.O played, but it's not essential. This line is clearly shaded towards New England. If you look at the moneyline, you can buy Philly right now at about +240. Sorry, but there's NO WAY the Eagles only win this game 29% of the time. One of the premiere teams in the NFL, and you think they would go 5-11 if they played this game sixteen times?

Uh, I don't think so. Remember, last year the Panthers covered against what is basically these same Patriots, and this Eagles team is better than Carolina was last year. Now remember, we're not guaranteeing anything-it's entirely possible that the Eagles won't show up at all, at that the Pats roll 42-7. They whipped Indy, after all, and they're obviously capable of blowing out anybody at anytime. What we are saying, however, is that if you played this same game an infinite number of times Philly would cover over 53% of the time.

Take the points, folks.